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"Sink into Louis Vitton White Check Pattern " after 4 years, domestic communication course of study eventually afresh " hero rises " .

On July 13, national statistic bureau was announced this year first half of the year of our country GDP add fast -- 9.6% . On July 21, industry letter ministry released amplitude of income of telegraphic first half of the year industry -- 10.1% , this is telegraphic industry income is added fast exceeded GDP first since 2007. And before 2007, our country telegraphic course of study is maintaining two digit to grow to precede all the time all the time at GDP amplitude, telegraphic now course of study restored it seems that before honorable.

3G went out energetically

2007, income of our country telegraphic industry is added fast (11.2% ) add under GDP first fast (11.9% ) , this kind " backward " the situation lasted 4 years all the time, 2009 both the difference between is to be pulled more arrive greatly 5.2 percent.

Do not have friendly intercourse to began last year, income increase rate is in telegraphic course of study to promote steadily all the time, last year of 4 quarters add fast ordinal for 5.3% , 6.5% , 6.8% with 7% . Telegraphic industry income is added fast add with GDP fast the difference between is progressively and narrow, arrived this year first quarter, telegraphic industry income is added fast for both differ only 0.4 percent, exceed GDP instead now not unexpected.

Telegraphic course of study is added fast can exceed GDP instead, ceng Jianqiu is taught to look in university of Beijing post and telecommunications, the reason basically depends on at 2 o'clock. Because telecommunication recombines,be, the development infuse that is telegraphic course of study vigor, "3 operation business changes whole business to operation, exceed the result that should saying is transition this instead. " 2 because,be 3G, drive in what 3G develops, mobile business grows very quickly, user dimensions growth is rapid. And the rapid growth that user dimensions increased to also drive telegraphic portfolio, drove industry development to add then fast rise ceaselessly. "Still have another factor, the country seeks the growth of GDP blindly no longer now, strengthened macroscopical adjusting control. Strengthened macroscopical adjusting control..

Chen Yoping of expert of industry letter ministry also thinks 3G develops to telegraphic course of study pulling a movement to use is quite apparent, "Operation business is a lot of more devoted, new-blown professional work is very much also, this promoted the development of telegraphic course of study. " he thinks, now SP appreciation business not statistic is in telegraphic industry income, if statistical amid, add fast even fast.

slightly academy of advisory industry of your plan government seeks advice from advisory Tang Xin to think likewise, telegraphic first half of the year industry is added fast exceed GDP, 3G contribution is the largest. He expresses, of 3G gain ground quickly, price of 3G business formula greatly prep above 2G or 2.5G business formula, make user ARPU value increases considerably, bring about industry income finally to grow considerably.

Maintain 3 ～ 5 years to be no problem

Telegraphic first half of the year this year course of study is added fast exceed GDP instead, is this the beginning of a period? Be still transitory only?

Chen Yoping thinks, just begin now, telegraphic course of study adds 3 ～ inside 5 years fast won't lag behind at GDP, "Because 3G will enter benign growth period, won't be a phase that investment does not yield. " according to 3 operation business newest the data of main June operation that publish, number of domestic 3G user has been amounted to now 80.5 million, "The affirmation end this year can be achieved 100 million, break through 100 million dimensions, enter benign development phase. Enter benign development phase..

Tang Xin expresses, telegraphic course of study is added fast exceed GDP to be able to maintain how long, basically look how to define telegraphic trade. If define the foundation that is a tradition " conduit serves " , so exceed GDP circumstance to won't be maintained too long, "Because the attribute of this industry decided its operation efficiency is met,promote ceaselessly, cost can drop ceaselessly. Indiscriminate competition can bring about income amplitude to drop ceaselessly between each operation business, appear even negative growth. " if the definition is burgeoning, all sorts of telecommunication that are based on data business serve, the income of so telegraphic industry or likelihood have a high-speed to grow period. Nevertheless right now, the likelihood that acts leading role in telegraphic industry is not operation business, can be developed however and provide the service business that of all kinds telecommunication uses.

"Information communication course of study is a country strategical the foundation of burgeoning industry, prep above GDP this is normal phenomenon. " Ceng Jianqiu expresses, he thinks telegraphic course of study is the following add fast won't far in that way like the past exceed GDP. And telegraphic now course of study also faces a lot of difficulty, "Telegraphic course of study enters small profit period now, endowment cost is being reduced all the time, still make progress without materiality plus 3 nets confluence. " Ceng Jianqiu say.

Enter " news operation " new level

Before industry public figure differentiates development of our country telegraphic estate for 3 phase: Phase of one's voice in speech, transition phase and news operation phase. In phase of one's voice in speech, telegraphic popularity rate is relatively inferior, income growth is apparent. In transition phase, popularity rate tends saturated, maturity of incline to of business of traditional one's voice in speech causes telegraphic industry income to add fast glide faster, and of new business pull a movement to use have not show, make operation business be in a devil of hole, originally especially net operation business. And in news operation phase, growth of new business income is rapid, become the main driving force that telegraphic industry income increases to measure, drive telegraphic industry income to add fast pick up continuously.

2005, 2006 when, domestic operation business begins business transition, seek becomes comprehensive information to serve a provider, seek new point of growth. So this telegraphic course of study is added fast surmount GDP, whether to mean domestic telegraphic industry to enter new level?

Chen Yoping supports positive attitude, he states home is telegraphic now course of study already from phase of one's voice in speech, enter data to spread level, perhaps say information serves phase. "There had been 40% ～ now the income of 50% comes from blame speech income, operation business people it is to providing all-around news service. Operation business people it is to providing all-around news service..

And look in Tang Xin, at present our country telegraphic course of study is in the evening of transition phase, the initial stage of news operation phase. "Arrive from phase of word Wu operation the process that news operation phase is a gradual change, the dimensions of data business can exceed dimensions of business of one's voice in speech gradually, nonexistent an apparent transition phase. " he thinks, data business, move especially the service related Internet can become telegraphic industry to grow the fastest income source.

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